Phillies Blog – Davey and The Statman Contributors - Phillies blog will feature renowned Sports Handicapper Davey Sharpe and his partner Mike the Statman.  Combined they operate a successful sports handicapping business together and are both lifelong Phillies fans.

Hamels & Phillies Not Ready for Prime Time

It’s hard not to dwell on a loss like last night’s, so I will try to keep the review short.  Several things have become painstakingly clear however:

• Hamels – 10 hits, 5 ER, 2 HR’s – through 6 innings.  Garbage.  Hamels was 0-2 going into the start – His ERA is now over 7.  Nothing more needs to be said.
• The bullpen starts and ends with one guy – Papelbon.  Not one other guy in there is reliable enough to keep a game close.
• Phillies are 1.5 out of first place going into a home series against one of the worst teams and worst bullpens in Baseball.  Result?  0-2.

Asche came up huge last night and is now hitting 200 points higher than Freddy Galvis.  If I see Galvis start one more game at over Cody Asche, I will start sending a copy of my blog to Sandberg for educational purposes.

I am not making this all Sandberg’s fault.  The GM certainly has a hand in the creation of this very below average team.  How you can look at a bullpen like this and think in late March, “yeah I think we are good to go”, is very much not clear to me.  We can look at an increasingly large handful of games in this short season that are losses directly tied to the bullpen.  And a handful of wins in this tight race would put us in 1st place.  Think about that.  Instead, there we sit in last place in the still tight, but horribly mediocre NL East.

Ok – finished dwelling on that misery.  Let’s take an analytical look at tonight’s game and see if we can’t make some hard predictions and make a little $$$. 

Lee vs Buehrle – Lefty vs Lefty.

Phil hitting against lefties this year - .245 avg….289 OBP…20 Ex Base Hits…6 HR’s…23 RBI’s…69 K’s..68 Runners Stranded
Tor  hitting against lefties this year  -  .250 avg….311 OBP…30 Ex Base Hits…11 HR’s..35 RBI’s…55 K’s…54 Runners Stranded

Oh – and Toronto actually had one LESS game against a lefty than Phila this year.  Hmmmmm….

Cliff Lee is 2-5 vs Toronto and Mark Buehrle is 5-2 vs Phila.  Although Lee’s last 3 starts show him with an ERA of 1.71 and a miniscule WHIP under 1.00. 

Buehrle has been knocked around pretty good at home in his last 2 starts, only striking out 3 while walking 4 in 10 innings and giving up a very high 20 hits.

The Vegas line is set at Phillies being an underdog at +120 and the total at 7.5.

Do you think that Phila can score 4 runs in Toronto?  Ruiz, Nix, and Byrd all hit Buehrle pretty darn well – so I am HOPING that Sandberg can think enough to start a guy that has a .450 lifetime average off hit with 2 HR’s in only 16 AB’s.  Even with how poor Phila is off lefties, I think they can rebound off an embarrassing performance at home.

I think that Phila will score 4 in Toronto tonight.  So I will be giving out Phila and the Over to all my clients tonight.  If  Phila can score at least 4 runs, you can’t lose money and you could sweep the board.

Let’s get em tonight. . . spring nights are SO much better with a Phillies win – agree???